As NASA and China speed up their lunar space programmes, a more-than-temporary human settlement on the moon inches closer to reality. Space agencies with these plans are targeting the moon’s south pole region, where permanently shadowed craters are supposed to hold large quantities of water ice, which a human base can use as a water source.
As on the earth, water is at the centre of all these plans. But a new study by two astronomers, Martin Elvis of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory and Jonathan McDowell of Durham University, has thrown up a reality check. The scientists arrived at this estimate based on calculations of how much water the moon may really hold, how much electricity people and industrial activities consume, how much water a human settlement might need, and how efficiently that water can be reused. Right now, the exact quantity of water on the moon is a major source of uncertainty, and which scientists on the ground are studying using robotic missions like India’s Chandrayaan and China’s Chang’e programmes. Research is however slowed, necessarily, by differences in instruments and different studies making different assumptions about the moon. In August, NASA also invited the Indian Space Research Organisation to participate in the ‘Moon Base ’ . Since Elvis and McDowell assumed a minimum population of one lakh for their analysis, the findings don’t apply to short-duration missions or small lunar outputs. But as these outposts expand, the study suggests, the space agencies and the governments behind them may have to treat water on the moon as a strategic resource.
The duo has estimated that even if the moon hosted one billion tonnes of water, it would support a population of only one million people for roughly a century if they recycled 98% of it. One 2022 study of 65 large permanently shadowed craters estimated that eight of them together hold around 34 million tonnes of water. China’s ‘International Lunar Research Station’ plans for a basic station by 2035 that will be built out in the 2040s. India itself is planning a crewed landing on the moon by 2040.
In the long-term, entrepreneurs like Jeff Bezos have argued for moving heavy industries to the moon while Elon Musk said the satellite can even support a “self-growing city”. At present, NASA has said it will set up a permanent outpost near the moon’s south pole from the 2030s under its ‘Moon Base’ programme.
