The developing strong El Niño could intensify dry conditions in Keralam, raising concerns over forest fires, the early drying of forest streams and waterholes, changes in wildlife movement and a potential increase in human–wildlife conflict.
Sreejith, senior principal scientist at the Kerala Forest Research Institute (KFRI).
The potential impacts of El Niño could extend to forest health, regeneration and ecosystem functioning, according to K.A.
The severity of the impact would depend on forest type, elevation, soil moisture, and the prevailing climatic conditions. Species also differ in their ability to withstand drought, with some relatively tolerant and others highly susceptible to water stress. Forests may retain their overall canopy appearance even as their physiological health declines. Prolonged drought could kill vulnerable trees, limit regeneration and eventually alter forest composition in favour of drought-tolerant species. Comparing forest phenology during El Niño years with historical records could help researchers assess its effects on seasonal changes in forest vegetation, Mr. C.K. The amount and distribution of northeast monsoon rainfall would be crucial in determining water availability in forests and the extent of stress on wildlife.
The State’s 28% deficit in southwest monsoon rainfall could compound the situation if dry conditions persist.
Experts said the impact on forests and wildlife would depend on local rainfall patterns, temperature changes and the duration of dry spells. Sreejith said. Vishnudas, executive director of the Hume Centre for Ecology and Wildlife Biology, said it was too early to determine the full ecological impact of the developing El Niño event.
